Pashinyans New Armenia
Armenia insists on his representatives continues to be the head of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (ODKB), 2020. This rule is adopted since 2015. Since 2017 served at the office of the general secretary general Khachaturyan. Lukashenko raised this appointment of the new Secretary in the meeting with Azerbaijani ambassador in Minsk, which uproared Armenia since Azerbaijan is not the member state of ODKB.
Pashinyan is not considered as a real politician by collegues among ODKB. He is seen as a politician from the streets, which is why Lukashenko can allow himself a conversation with Azeri ambassador and sell without any reservation about being reprimanded by Armenia, “Polonez” long-distance rockets to Azerbaijan. Armenia considered this meeting as a breach of confidentiality – an inside information delivering to a non-member country which contradicts the spirit of collective security.
For Armenia, the General Secretary office meant to be a change between X and Y, but it looks that it gained an importance as other member states blocked Armenian approach to replace its new representative in that position. Now even, it gets clear that Khachaturov (Yuri Khachaturov became the deputy minister of defence later) who is accused of state crime was at the time of street clashes just a commander of a garnizon in Yerevan. One does not see clear logic behind Pashinyans tenacious attempt to chase after him. It is also much talk about nothing, since Armenia needs not be extremely interested in this job and Secretary of Council of – is a coordinating job and the person serving there is not decisive in operation stage of ODKB at all. Pashinyans foreign policy is replete by mistakes and wrongdoings, as he may have established better relationship with Belarus und Kazakhstan which push for more reforms of EAU and Russia that supress the initiatives by its union partners.
What iritates Belarus and Kazakhstan, is, that Russia during «velvet revolution» instead of intervention and support Sarkisyan, actually approved a new Armenian leader. This fact frightens both autocratic leaders of Belarus and Kazakhstan. Pashinyan is a lot more independent than his predecessor, but to radically change his policy he is limited in capacity, as he sense also more pressure coming from Azerbaijan as conflifting.
Since Sochi meeting with Putin in November last year and Gasproms announcement that gas price will be 15 dollars higher and it took some negotiation to put down the price for domestic customers, the relations with Russia have stabilized, as Russia sent clear signs that it will not tolerate any criminal persecution of previous regimes officials (Putins birthday call to Kocharyan) and see in Pashinyan a renege of promises while before a regime change this has been a set term.
Armenia seeks a strategy balanced foreign policy but also more autonomous policy – souvereign foreign policy with the consensus in Armenia, that no one questions the strategic relationship with Russia, independent of who will be at the head of the country, the relations remain close. This position is also shared by the party “Bright Armenia” and the head of it, Pashinyans close ally Edmon Marukyan, as they don’t consider themselves strongly pro-Western party either. Government is also confident that Russia must adapt to new realities and new faces in the Armenian government, rather than opposite. A new generation of politicians accented the power, Russia need to accommodate to it, it was too much used to a personal connections with members of former establishment, while thenew type of leaders use facebook, twitter etc. Russian rulers are used that Armenian politicians cringe before them.
On the Karabagh front, Azerbaijan has mitigated its pressure on Armenian new government, as expecting substantial steps by Armenian side and concessions. Last year is marked as the year with the less ever casualties on the ceasefire line. However, it is much obfuscated and confused by ever changing stance by Pashinyan, who wants to include Karabagh as third party in peace negotioations. He refers to democratic rhetoric as he does not license to speak in favor of Karabagh Armenians, who have their own state.
Western direction
US ignores the fact that border control between Armenia and Iran and Turkey is still operated by Russia and its FSB structure. As declared by Pashinyan, his government does not seek an ally in NATO, but wants to extend its relationship with ODKB. Armenian position on deploying military miners and doctors to Syria is another case, in which Pashinyan has acted as first one in ODKB who gave support to Russian abroad mission. Doing it, he made a great favor to its big neighbor in the North, but it seems also deterioriated its relations with US, after Washington rejection to Mnatsakyan on his visit to US and US State Department statement about its non-understanding of Russian-Armenian cooperation in Syria mission. Armenia commented on that putting forward exlusively humanitarian reasons. Here, one can clearly see that Pashinyans foreign policy is, as some of his government members abstained him not to seek adventure with Washington, jeopardizes the potential and vowed financial investments to implement economic reform program.
For Pashinyan, it is a sign that he holds up promises he gives and it also comes out of character of his nationalistic approach, while he see in this mission cajoling of Armenian diaspora. Probably he relies on support by Merkel and Macron (07-12- 2018 October Francophil summit), as they will not hang him out to dry. EU Commissar in his latest meetings has promised financial support to Armenia and that EU made provisions to increase the budget for EU-neighbours 2020-2027. Results of foreign policy of Armenia in German direction sums up, as there have been ubiquious meetings and visits with just one contract signed between Cologne University and Technical University. Armenia enters a critical phase that promised investments by foreign actors, whereas in neighboring countries German capital is already wellrepresented in energetic sector and infrastructure. Pashinyans main priority remains the economization of foreign policy.
Pashinyan seems to be stuck between two big rivals and it seems also that both sides do not really repay Armenia its attempt to seek in them its allies. There is unclearness about what Trump administration is after in the region, as it barely puts more bigger regional priorities and does not want to engange with details of regional conflict. In this framework, Armenia is with its forign policy nothing considerable in the big projects of the US (Syria, Iran). Armenian administration felt since the last visit by US President aide John Bolton that the US imposes a conflict solution on Armenia, rather than to consider its interests in it. The meeting supposed to establish relations with the US on a highest level. Armenia woed since August 2018 meeting on the highest level with Donald Trump, but this has failed since then.
Former Rulers
Republican Party was so inactive in the election period and hatred that they avoided the direct encountering with electorate. It still considers itself as the main opposition party and its rhetoric also rest upon that, as a party that is in opposition to the new rulers while not recognizing revolution. RPA was hoping long time that they lost a battle, but not the war and were still hoping for a revanche. Russia has had a tool by means of RPA – as fifth colon – to use, for example Kocharyan ressurrection as new political actor, was such attempt to challenge the new government.
Some of RPA changed sides, like an oligarch Samvel Aleksanyan. However, it is very much clear that they are not really a party but a political group. The party is led by Vigen Sarkisyan who was a former minister of defense. In remote parts of Armenia, there may be some supporters of the party still existing, however the RPA does not follow common ideals and or a ideological principles, it is concerned about its own group interests, which includes first of all the protection of their ownerships. RPA voting rate was around 59 thousand votes, which is very astonishing as it was the ruling party before.
Dashnaksutyun, second party in the previous government which could not get any seat in December elections and lost its popularity in Armenia, proposed to unite Armenians in the world and to sign a union contract between Armenia and Karabagh, so that any attack on Karabagh were considered as an attack on Armenia. Dashnaksutyun had lost its 6 members in the ministerial cabinet and Prospery Armenia many of its governors, dismissed by Pashinyan. Radical opposition movement members “Constituting Parliament” proclaimed in 2015, have been released after amnesty.
New political rulers
December 2018 elections were more or less a voting for the head of the state, rather than a real parliamentary elections. 70% of voters chose Pashinyans “My step”, Prospery Armenia, with an oligarch at the head Tsarukyan got 8,5 %, whom Pashinyan suddenly acclaimed as businessmen and rather Western oriented Bright Armenia 6%. New faces in the parliament are less experienced in governmental work and comprise public persons, NGO activists and mostly journalists or one can call them also opinion makers, who take the official position as easy but are need to learn it. Pashinyan gets almost majority of votes for his economic reform plan, his main opposition is Bright Armenia, which is small in its impact, but as many expect, the strong out of parliament groups and civil society may compensate the lack of opposition in the parliament.
Prime-minister aides are constituted by Pashinyans former collegues, acquaintices, fellowmen etc. Ararat Mirzoyan, who was vice-prime minister is now the speaker of the parliament as to steer the discussion in the parliament. He also did not call into question that Pashinyan wants to remain as “superprimeminister”, who has National Security Service and possible also the Police under its sway. After parliamentary elections, the number of ministeries were reduced to 12 from 17. Arsen Gasparyan, also his friend from times of journalistic activities, is called into office of aiding relations with Russia.
The new economic program contains foundation of military industrial complex, as Armenia wants to have own production of military assets. Government seeks only 5% economic, while for many this seems as underestimation since it does not reflect truly revolutionary governments goals. Also, high quality of education, improvement of medical treatment and combat of poverty are priorities. Government wants also to open perspectives for free entrerpreneuership.